Curtain of political stability conceals unpredictable future

Posted on 11/1/2009 at 9:42 PM - 0 Comments - Post Comment - Link

As a rule, once they start, they can't stop; and the insult of defeat only drives them deeper into the game. Even today this remains the case, because post-Yeltsin Russia is neither stable nor predictable.

The Kremlin has announced its priorities for the coming six months, but  akoya pearl necklace even these declared tasks conceal considerable dangers for excessively optimistic forecasters. Take just two of these priorities 每 the adoption of the 2002 draft budget and the formation of a civil society, Kremlin-speak for the process of taming public organizations.

The latter priority will provoke serious trouble only if the Kremlin decides to put restrictions on foreign-aid donations to Russia. But the budget, even with a pro-Kremlin majority in the State Duma, awaits a difficult fate.

Of course, the Duma deputies won't quarrel with the draft budget's fundamental provisions 每 they don't want to risk provoking the Kremlin into calling early parliamentary elections. But even the pro-Kremlin deputies are unlikely to resist the temptation to do favors for this or that lobby group. To expect a deputy to deal with such appealing budget items as additional budget revenue and not dip a hand in would be asking too much.

This will make it extremely difficult for the government to defend the draft budget, which as it is, doesn't account for all of the foreign-debt payments due next year. Budget battles won't reach the same pitch as the Yeltsin years, but no matter what government ministers and Kremlin propagandists say, haggling will be unavoidable.

Among other Kremlin projects are plans by the most active part of the Presidential Administration to launch a new assault on the Communist Party.

"We're worried not just by the Communists' more radical tone in the capital 每 the shameful results of which we saw at the end of the last Duma session during the votes on the Land and Labor Codes. We're also worried by the increasing redness of the provinces and the Communist successes in regional elections," said a senior official in the Presidential Administration.

The Kremlin knows how to deal with the Duma Communists. Its idea of a solution is to give the Communist leaders a scare with threats to review the chairs of the various Duma committees. But keeping the Communists under control in the regions is far more difficult. The experience of regional elections over the last year has shown the ineptness of Kremlin spin-doctors in the provinces.

In any case, the zeal shown by members of the Presidential Administration in their quest to fight the "red menace" could run up against President Vladimir Putin's own preference for a more sedate pace of events.

The surprise shakeups and sudden moves of the Yeltsin era aren't for Putin. He prefers to take things slowly, moving at his own pace and paying no attention to the wrathful remarks of ill-wishers on the sidelines, all the more so as, after energetic Kremlin "political cleansing" operations, such ill-wishers have all but disappeared. There is no serious political opposition, and wholesale pearl jewelry the voice of the independent media is becoming ever fainter. Finally, there are no genuine talents behind the scenes 每 string-pullers and intriguers of the caliber of a Boris Berezovsky or an Anatoly Chubais.

If Chubais takes part in intrigues today, they're only of the local, Kremlin-corridor variety. Chubais swore allegiance to Putin and got the whole of the Union of Right Forces (SPS) party to follow suit. (Chubais proved this loyalty by leading SPS into the Kremlin campaign to destroy Media-MOST).

In any case, Chubais is more concerned with electricity these days and the restructuring and reform of grid operator UES. Any battles involving Chubais will be only those against his perennial opponent, Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov. The conflict surrounding Mosenergo is now at its peak, and at any moment events could take the turn illustrated by the more-than-controversial takeovers at the Kochkanarsky mining and refining plant and Moscow's Kristall vodka distillery.

As for Berezovsky, now in voluntary exile, he continues sending out political ripples with his revelations about Putin and predictions of the president's imminent demise. But pro-Kremlin and opposition analysts and commentators alike think that, for the next six months at least, Berezovsky is doomed to sit on the sidelines 每 devoid of serious influence in day-to-day politics. This doesn't mean, though, that everyone will ignore Berezovsky; after all, he's a master of intrigue.

Still, all this suggests a quieting down and even stagnation of political life, indicating that a boring August will be followed by a humdrum autumn.

But the reality is likely to be different. Now that democratic institutions have given way to ersatz democracy, authentic political life has been replaced by virtual politics and corridor intrigues hatched by Kremlin groups against each other.

In a situation where the president still has little clear idea of the aims and tasks before him, final decisions will depend to freshwater pearl strands a large extent on the choices made by consultants and advisors. And given the unceasing Kremlin battles between the administration clan known as the "Family" and its rival the "Petersburg Chekists," there's no more predictability in the Kremlin today than there was under the last president.

Currency union with Belarus agreed

Posted on 11/1/2009 at 9:36 PM - 0 Comments - Post Comment - Link

Crews battle, but fires continue to rage

Posted on 11/1/2009 at 9:33 PM - 0 Comments - Post Comment - Link

All of it will be up in smoke again later this afternoon," says Sergei Voronin, a member of a fire brigade in Noginsk, some 58 kilometers east of Moscow, pointing toward the town.

Voronin rushed to a site where 12 other men were already fighting a fire on a 20-hectare stretch of forest and peat bog.

A watering machine is filled to the brim with 6 tons of water. That will be used up within 30 minutes, requiring someone to rush to turquoise necklace town for a refill. All ponds and lakes located nearby have been drained by drought and the heavy use of fire pumps.

The flames flicker as smoke swirls up to the crones burning off roots. "It's dangerous to stand here, a tree may fall any minute," Voronin says. Further into the forest, there is hardly a breath of air as smoke burns firefighters' eyes.

Moscow region fires have now been upgraded to the fifth category - the highest.

"It's been over a month now," Voronin says, wiping his face. "We start at eight in the morning and work flat-out until dusk - seven days a week."

Yury Sviridov, a 22-year-old fire inspector who normally deals with paperwork, struggles with a hose through the forest tangle. He has been called up from behind his desk to the frontline of the current emergency. "I've only had one day off so far. We had to reduce our lunch time to 20 minutes. The rest of it is intensive work," he explains.

Noginsk is not the only area ablaze in the Moscow region. The fire is rapidly spreading across other districts southeast of Moscow.

Although described as "very tense," the situation is under control, fire-prevention officials say.

The region has deployed 363 firemen with 95 ground extinguishing machines. The city of Moscow contributed 10 fire engines, 30 watering machines and 20 tractors.

With the area in the grips if a heat wave and no sign of rain, the prospects are not good.

"The land is far too dry," says Yuri Novikov, head of a working group from the Moscow regional administration. "Our reports show 0.06 milimeter precipitation on the land when we need at least 3 mm. It's like a tinder box."

Firemen say rain would be a gift from God. "We'd need a good three days of steady rain or perhaps a week to douse the fire," Novikov says.

But there is no relief in sight from the meteorological service.

Firemen are hoping the situation will not replicate that of 1972, when a long dry spell parched the land to such an extent that "it went off like gun powder," says Vladimir Yermilov, a spokesman for the Moscow region fire service.

"The fire has come as close as 10 meters to pearl strand wholesale dacha settlements dotted around the region," Medvedev says. "But so far we've been lucky and worked hard to beat the flames back. Residents themselves have been digging trenches to stave it off."

The first fires broke out in late April. By Wednesday, Moscow region authorities had counted 1449 fires over 717 hectares. With high temperatures expected to last through August, the fires are unlikely to die out before the first snow falls.

The situation is just as bleak in the rest of Russia.

Fires have been raging across many regions in Russia since March, devastating huge tracts of forest. According to the federal Forestry Ministry, as many as 400 fires break out daily across Russia across a territory of 1,500 - 3,000 hectares.

"One third of them are put out the same day," Deputy Forestry Minister Dmitri Odintsov says. "But they spring up again with renewed vigor." Odintsov describes the situation as "critical" but still says everything "is under control."

Since March, the total number of forest fires across the country has reached 17,000, affecting some 300,000 hectares of territory, with over 500 hectares destroyed.

No casualties have been reported to date, Odintsov says, in contrast to last year when the Leningradsky region lost six firemen in the course of duty.

Although it is too early for a final economic impact assessment, to date the country lost 1.5 to 2 billion rubles in fire-related damage - compared to six billion rubles last year.

According to Odintsov, forest services are short of funds and fire departments are struggling to meet even urgent needs such as fuel for trucks and pumps.

"Very few organizations agree to work for nothing, and without fuel, the planes we have can not take off. In previous years, we would have 500-600 airplanes in the air at a time and knew that we could increase that by over 500 if required."

"In those days, a pilot could spot a fire on a ten-square-meter plot and we would send a brigade of 3 to 5 firemen to deal with it immediately," Odintsov explains.

Today, the forest ministry has a fleet of 100 planes and helicopters, which is not enough for a country spanning 11 time zones. The shortage also leads to cultured pearl jewelry prolonged delays.

"Now, a fire may spread over 50 hectares before we can deal with it," Odintsov says.

However, next year the ministry is hoping to launch a computerized federal system sponsored by the European Union's Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States (TACIS) program. That would improve early detection and response to fires.

Creativity from space to the underground

Posted on 11/1/2009 at 9:32 PM - 0 Comments - Post Comment - Link

Who wants to be a spaceman? A trip to space will be offered as the top prize in a game show to be screened by Channel One, which paid millions of dollars to be able to offer the prize.

The station reached the deal after nearly two years of negotiations with the cash-strapped Russian space agency, Rosaviakosmos, beating off competition from several other television companies

Honor among brewers

If you notice that beer advertisements just aren't making you so thirsty any more, it's because a group of Russian brewers has signed a voluntary code on advertising.

According to gemstone necklace the guidelines, which aim to preempt government anti-beer initiatives, TV advertisements should no longer show anyone drinking beer and should never allude to "elements of youth culture."

Bums on seats

The government says Gallup Media can't count properly. The Press Ministry is unhappy with the company's work in calculating Russia's television audiences, and will put the license for gathering TV ratings out to tender next year.

The Ministry said that defects in Gallup's work had been uncovered during the course of international research.

No laughing matter

Television channel STS has decided to scrap production of the "Bolshoi Kush" program due to poor ratings.

The station said a mismatch between the show's style and the channel's traditional audience had rendered it unsuccessful.

A harsher observer might conclude that it just wasn't funny.

Storming out

It seems employees at advertising agency Media Storm aren't very keen on hanging around.

Director of the PR department Svetlana Tsygareva has left to potato pearl join PR agency Aron Lloyd, and PR manager Olga Terno has left her post.

Media Storm's clients include Spar supermarkets, the Intourist travel agency and Iz Ruk v Ruki publishers.

Courting favor comes first in Nizhny Oblast election

Posted on 11/1/2009 at 9:31 PM - 0 Comments - Post Comment - Link

The first round of elections for governor of Nizhny Novgorod Oblast gave the lead to Gennady Khodyrev, a Communist Party member and former first secretary of the one-time Gorky Regional Communist Party Committee.

This is not Khodyrev＊s first attempt to retake the region＊s helm. But despite taking first place, he is not the first round＊s real winner. That honor goes to someone who didn＊t even take part 每 presidential representative in the Volga Federal District Sergei Kiriyenko.

It＊s essential for Kiriyenko that he shows his masters in Putin＊s entourage 每 and Putin personally 每 his effectiveness and his ability to wholesale pearl jewelry resolve difficult tasks without complaining or calling in outside help, and without causing scandals that could reflect badly on Putin＊s image. This is all the more important after the Kremlin＊s failure in the elections for governor of Primorsky Krai.

Kiriyenko＊s task was little different from that which another presidential representative, Konstantin Pulikovsky, and Vladislav Surkov, his overseer from the Kremlin administration, had to pull off in Vladivostok 每 that is, to ensure at worst that no "awkward" candidates got through to the second round, and at best, to clinch victory for the Kremlin candidate.

The "awkward" candidate in Primorsky Krai was former Mayor of Vladivostok and now Duma Deputy Viktor Cherepkov. Nizhny Novgorod Oblast was even more of a challenge with two awkward candidates 每 Andrei Klimentyev and Dmitry Savelyev. Both are viewed by the Kremlin as being backed by criminal and mafia groups, and both, at various points in the race, had enough support from voters to feel confident about a place in the second round.

Andrei Klimentyev is a well-known Nizhny Novgorod businessman with a criminal past, who was released from prison a year ago after serving time for embezzling state loans.

Klimentyev had earned himself the reputation among voters of being a modern-day Robin Hood suffering at the hands of the authorities. Klimentyev made his political debut in 1997 by winning the election for mayor of Nizhny Novgorod. But officials in Moscow got the results overturned, and Klimentyev soon found himself in court.

This time, however, Kiriyenko＊s job was to make sure the notorious Klimentyev＊s campaign failed without resorting to tactics like pressing criminal charges against him or having him taken out of the race. Members of Kiriyenko＊s apparatus say their strategy was to debunk the Robin Hood myth and cure the region once and for all of its "Klimentyev syndrome."

Kiriyenko succeeded in his mission. Klimentyev scored only 10 percent of the vote and came in at fifth place, saying he had no intention of playing the "politics" game again.

Dealing with Dmitry Savelyev wasn＊t so simple. Savelyev, a former friend of Boris Nemtsov and Kiriyenko himself, is a member of the Union of Right Forces (SPS) Duma faction and a successful businessman who spent a long time in the oil sector. Savelyev＊s name gained publicity in September 1999, when OMON troops, acting on the orders of then Energy Minister Viktor Kalyuzhny and head of the Presidential Administration Alexander Voloshin, sawed their way into the headquarters of oil company Transneft, where Savelyev was director, and literally removed him from his office. At that time, with difficult elections just round the corner, the Kremlin urgently needed to put its own man in charge of the state-owned company.

As a candidate, Savelyev entered the election race with sizeable financial resources and a regional media empire to multi-strands pearl necklace back him.

He had several local TV companies, radio stations and newspapers on his side as well as the support of Nizhny Novgorod Mayor Yury Lebedev. (Lebedev is Kiriyenko＊s main opponent in the region, and Kiriyenko＊s apparatus says that Lebedev is backed by criminal business throughout the oblast.)

Savelyev adopted the "black PR" strategy in his campaign, pouring mud on all the other candidates and attempting to convince voters that only he was fit for the job.

But the trick didn＊t work, Savelyev didn＊t make it to the second round and, especially pleasing to Kiriyenko, his campaign was a failure in Nizhny Novgorod itself, where up until now, he＊d been thought to have a good chance of becoming mayor.

Savelyev＊s mudslinging tactics had the serious side effect of provoking low voter turnout both in the towns and villages.

A fair number of voters 每 more than 8 percent 每 also voted against all candidates. The current heat wave also explains the low voter turnout, but everything else is an allergic reaction to a dirty campaign.

For the most part, it was left-wing voters who made their way to the polling stations. Kiriyenko＊s battle now is to improve voter turnout in the second round, since, as he explained it, voter turnout of more than 40 percent is enough to guarantee that victory won＊t go to a Communist candidate.

Even though the battle isn＊t over yet, Kiriyenko looks happy with the results so far. He＊s already fulfilled his minimum mission, and all that remains is to make sure victory goes to incumbent Gov. Ivan Sklyarov, a non-confrontational and obedient official ready to carry out Kiriyenko＊s orders without a murmur. And Sklyarov can be happy with Kiriyenko since it looks like victory is heading his way.

But as a politician and active member of the liberal movement in Russia, Kiriyenko failed this campaign dismally. And not just Kiriyenko but the whole SPS party, which unconditionally surrendered its once enviably strong positions in a city that still recently was seen as the liberal capital of Russia.

Kiriyenko is largely to blame for this. He not only killed the politician in himself but forced SPS leader Boris Nemtsov to bow down to his bureaucratic interests.

As a former governor of the region and a popular figure in Nizhny Novgorod, Nemtsov would have been expected to take an interest in political events in his hometown, but he kept his distance instead.

The result was that Vadim Bulavinov, a genuinely liberal politician even if he is part of the pro-Kremlin Narodny Deputat (People＊s Deputy) parliamentary faction, was left without much-needed support.

SPS, meanwhile, was represented by the provocative Savelyev with his dirty tricks and underhanded methods.

SPS analysts think that if their leaders keep taking this kind of approach, the party＊s reputation will suffer.

But whatever Kiriyenko may say about wholesale pearl jewelry mistakes made by his colleagues from the right wing in Nizhny Novgorod, he was the first to lay SPS＊ interests at the altar of his success as an apparatchik.

His popularity rating at President Putin＊s court matters more to him.